The election of Donald Trump to the presidency of the US is symptomatic of a monopoly capitalist power in decline. His return to power reflects a failure of the other party of monopoly capitalism (the Democratic Party of Biden/Harris) and its inability to address the needs and aspirations of the working class. Drawing from a toxic brew of national chauvinism and reactionary currents of all kinds, Trump’s return to the White House will signal the sharpening of a host of contradictions domestically and internationally.
After World War II, the United States constructed a web of economic intuitions where Wall Street and Washington DC occupied center place. That world is gone, and it has been replaced by a fragmenting world economy, where the decline of US imperialism is picking up speed. Trump will accelerate the process.
The role of the US in the world economy is shrinking. In 1960, the US had about 40% of the world GDP. Today it is about half that. There was a day when US imperialism championed free trade. For the past decade-plus, Washington DC has moved away from the neoliberal trade model, erecting a growing tariff blockade. The abandonment of the Trans-Pacific Partnership and paralysis of the World Trade Organization are signs of things to come.
Trump has referred to himself as “Tariff Man,” promising to slap 20% tariffs on all imports and substantially more – 100 or 200% – on things like electric vehicles from China. The people around him, like some of the Biden crowd, look towards “delinking” the US economy from the People’s Republic of China.
One of the features of US imperialism – of decaying monopoly capitalism, is that big capital finds it increasingly difficult to utilize science and holds back advances in the productive forces. This phenomenon is on full display in the US, where someone like “vaccine skeptic” RFK Jr. will be put in charge of public health, and where industrial policy is turning against technologies that cause less harm to the environment, such as electric vehicles.
The policies of the Trump government will lead to a sharpening of inter-imperialist contradictions, which will have political and military dimensions. For example, Trump’s view of the Ukraine is that it is mainly a concern of Europe and that too much US time and treasure has been wasted on it. If implemented as policy, this shift on the Ukraine will force the European imperialist powers, especially Germany, to carry out a military buildup while putting new stress on NATO.
Monopoly capitalism is a law-governed system where the drive to seek the highest rate of profit is basic. While capitalism is always incapable of genuine long-range planning, imperialism in decline is animated by the shortest of short-term gain and contingency. One of the things that makes the Trump administration dangerous is precisely a reactionary pragmatism that is reshaping the US empire. It is a recipe for more wars and intervention, particularly in Latin America and the Pacific. We can expect increased US intervention in the Philippines.
Within the US, major attacks are coming. The labor movement will come under fire and there will be attempts to erode our standard of living. The bigots in DC will do what they can to promote inequality and there will be attacks on oppressed nationalities, including Black people, Chicano and Latinos, Asian Americans, Arab Americans, indigenous peoples and others. The rights of immigrants are going to be a special target. There is a crude women-hating misogyny in Trump-world and we can expect further moves to restrict reproductive rights. Likewise, we can expect moves against LGBTQ people. And the genocide in Palestine will continue under Trump.
The good news is that this war on the people is not going to be a one-sided one. It is entirely possible and necessary to build strong popular movements that are capable of serious resistance. This is not the time to keep our heads down. It’s time to unite all who can be united to defeat Trump’s reactionary agenda.
